INVESTMENT MARKET UPDATE
APRIL 2026
What developments have unfolded in local and global markets throughout the month of APRIL?
84%
S&P 500 companies exceeded earnings expectations
8th
Korea passes UK to become 8th largest stock market
R22.53
Price per litre of unleaded 95 in South Africa
ADVANTAGE - APRIL COMMENTARY:
GLOBAL MARKETS
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🌐 When momentum returns amid unresolved risks: AI leadership, policy divergence, and resilient risk appetite
April marked a reversal in market tone, with risk assets recovering strongly after March’s geopolitical-driven selloff. Investors rotated back into growth assets, led by US technology stocks, as confidence in earnings resilience began to outweigh near-term macro concerns.
Global equities advanced, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching new highs, supported by a strong US earnings season across technology and financials. This strength extended to emerging markets, particularly those linked to the AI supply chain.
However, the recovery unfolded alongside persistent geopolitical tension, with disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz keeping oil prices elevated and sustaining pressure on inflation expectations.
Central banks remained cautious, holding rates steady and reinforcing a “higher for longer” stance as inflation proved sticky. This contributed to ongoing divergence across regions, currency volatility, and continued pressure in bond markets.
Despite these headwinds, financial conditions were not restrictive enough to derail the recovery, with markets showing a renewed willingness to re-engage with risk.
For investors, the takeaway is one of balance: resilience has returned, but it sits alongside unresolved risks, reinforcing the importance of diversification and disciplined positioning.
Global Market Highlights (Month in USD):
- MSCI World Index: +9.6%
- MSCI Emerging Markets: +14.7%
- S&P 500: +10.4%
- Dow Jones: +7.1%
- NASDAQ Composite: +15.3%
- FTSE 100 (UK): +2.0%
- Shanghai Composite (China): +5.7%
- Hang Seng (Hong Kong): +4.0%
- Nikkei 225 (Japan): +16.1%
- Gold: -1.5%
- Brent Crude: $117 per barrel
Key Themes for Investors:
- Risk appetite returned sharply, with equities rebounding strongly and leadership rotating back to AI-linked growth as earnings surprised positively (especially in the US).
- Emerging markets outperformed, supported by exposure to the global AI supply chain and improved sentiment toward higher-beta assets.
- Geopolitics remained the dominant macro overhang, with ongoing Middle East conflict dynamics keeping energy markets disrupted and oil prices elevated, sustaining inflation sensitivity.
- Central banks stayed cautious and data-dependent, leaving policy rates unchanged while the market continued to grapple with “higher for longer” risks in the face of sticky inflation pressures.
- Bonds were still a source of tension, with volatility and higher term premia limiting diversification benefits even as equities rallied—reinforcing the case for disciplined portfolio construction rather than chasing the month’s winners.
Rand / US Dollar:
- In April, the rand gained2.3% against the USD. This compares with the long-term monthly average appreciation of 3.9% and depreciation of -4.2%
Rand / Euro:
- In April, the rand lost 1.0% against the EUR. This compares with the long-term monthly average appreciation of 2.8%
depreciation of -3.2%
Rand / British Pound:
- In April, the rand lost 0.4% against the GBP. This compares with the long-term monthly average appreciation of 3.1%
depreciation of -3.1%
SMARTIE BOX IN RANDS:
LOCAL MARKETS
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South Africa: resilience returns amid shifting policy expectations
South African markets experienced a welcome reprieve in April, with equities returning to positive territory after March’s sharp sell-off. Despite ongoing global uncertainty, improved sentiment and rotation into domestically exposed sectors supported the recovery.
Local equities advanced, led by Financials, Industrials, and Small-caps, marking a clear shift from the prior month’s broad-based weakness. The Resources sector was more mixed, although elevated gold prices continued to support mining earnings and overall market sentiment.
Inflation remained relatively benign, with CPI near the SARB’s 3% anchor, but the risk backdrop shifted. The SARB adopted a more cautious tone, highlighting the potential impact of higher oil prices and persistent global inflation pressures.
As a result, expectations moved away from rate cuts towards the possibility of rate hikes, aligning South Africa more closely with the global “higher for longer” narrative.
While fiscal outcomes showed improvement, with stronger-than-expected tax collection, local markets remain sensitive to external shocks. Bond and currency conditions stabilised relative to March, but underlying vulnerabilities persist.
Overall, April reinforced a more balanced outlook: improving domestic fundamentals provide support, but global risks and shifting rate expectations continue to shape the investment environment.
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- The JSE All Share moved into positive territory, up 1.6%.
- Financials (up 4.2%) and Industrials (up 3.2%) enjoyed solid gains, while Resources (down 2.3%) lagged, pressured by softer commodity prices and declines across several key mining counters.
- Small-caps rallied (up 3.5%), while Mid-caps recorded modest gains (up 0.9%). Large caps rose (up 1.6%), broadly in line with the JSE All Share Index.
- SA Property rebounded meaningfully, with both ALPI and S&P SA REIT Index delivering 5.4%.
- SA Nominal Bonds posted a strong month (up 3.3%), as yields declined. Inflation-Linked Bonds (up 4.4%) outperformed nominal bonds.
- Emerging Market Equities were the standout performers globally, with the MSCI Emerging Market Index returning (up 14.7%), while developed markets lagged, as the MSCI World Index returned gains of (up 9.6%).
- The Rand strengthened against most major currencies. The rand gained against the US Dollar (Rand appreciated 2.4%), and against the Euro (Rand appreciated 0.7%), however weakened against the Pound Sterling (Rand depreciated 0.5%).
- Resources ended a volatile month mixed, as Gold prices were broadly flat (down 0.7%), while Platinum gained (up 1.5%), and Brent Crude ended lower (down 3.7%) despite having reach highs above $110 intra-month.
MONTHLY RETURNS:
