Investment Market Update
FEBRUARY 2024
What developments have unfolded in local and global markets throughout the month of February?
KEY NUMBERS
>200%
YTD return of SuperMicro (to be added to the S&P 500)
3.1%
January inflation rate in the US
3rd Place
Germany moves to third largest economy
EXCHANGE RATES
Rand/US Dollar VS Emerging Market Currencies
US Dollar VS Euro
GLOBAL MARKET
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February witnessed significant growth across global equity markets. The MSCI Worlds Index soared to unprecedented heights, while the Nikkei shattered its 30-year record and the EUROSTOXX 50 matched its peak from 1999.
Developed markets officially entered a bull market phase, supported by robust economic data featuring strong GDP growth and stabilizing inflation trends.
Despite challenges such as low consumer confidence, Chinese equities staged a remarkable rebound during the month. The momentum was further fueled by a continuation of the robust US earnings season and improved economic indicators, reigniting market confidence from the previous year’s end.
In the United States, business optimism made a comeback, and with signs of slightly persistent inflation, expectations regarding the initiation of interest rate cuts were deferred. Meanwhile, the UK slipped into a technical recession; however, resilience in business activities suggests the likelihood of a shallow and short-lived downturn.
Overall, positive economic developments bolstered equity markets globally, while bonds experienced a slight decline as the anticipated timeline for interest rate cuts was extended.
SMARTIE BOX IN RANDS:
LOCAL MARKETS
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In February, global asset classes denominated in rands benefited from a weakening currency, offering attractive returns to investors. Global equities, fueled by strong dollar returns in the US, continued to significantly outperform other asset classes.
However, South Africa faced challenges, underperforming its emerging market counterparts. Local equities experienced a broad-based selloff, with resource stocks leading the decline and mid-cap equities lagging behind smaller and larger cap companies. The South African bourse ended the month in negative territory, primarily due to weakness across major sectors.
The resources sector emerged as the worst-performing local asset class, dragging down the overall market performance. Additionally, local bonds and inflation-linked bonds (ILBs) depreciated as investors questioned the timing of anticipated rate cuts. Amidst this, South African property stood out as the best-performing local asset class. Nevertheless, local bonds experienced a slight decline as yields rose in line with global trends.
Enoch Godongwana, South Africa’s Finance Minister since August 2021, presented the country’s third National Budget on February 21, 2024. Despite facing numerous challenges including high unemployment, weak consumer and business confidence, low fixed investment, elevated interest rates, and failing infrastructure, the Minister’s policy options are limited due to the country’s low growth rate. However, there are some positive expectations, with the South African economy projected to grow by 1.3% in 2024, increasing to 1.6% in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026. Factors contributing to this growth include anticipated reductions in load-shedding, interest rate cuts, increased spending associated with the 2024 National Election, improved agricultural conditions, a recovery in international tourism, and ongoing investments in the energy sector.
MOVEMENTS
- The JSE All Share Index dropped lower for the second consecutive month (down 2.4%).
- Financials (down 1.2%) and Industrials (down 0.7%) dipped into the red, while Resources (down 6.9%) plummeted lower.
- Small-caps (down 2.0%), Mid-caps (down 3.0%) and Large-caps (down 2.5%) all ended the month in the negative.
- The S&P SA REIT sector (down 2.9%) fell, while the SA Listed Property sector (up 0.8%) ended in the green, being the only local asset class to do so.
- SA Nominal Bonds (down 0.6%) and Inflation Linked Bonds (down 0.8%) ended the month below the zero-line.
- Developed Market Equities underperformed their Emerging Market peers in US Dollar terms, with the MSCI World Index up 4.3% and the MSCI Emerging Market Index having gained 4.8%.
- The Rand had a weak month, depreciating against the major currencies; relative to the US Dollar (Rand depreciated 3.1%), the Euro (Rand depreciated 2.8%) and the Pound Sterling (Rand depreciated 2.5%).
- The commodities sector had mixed results in December as Gold (down 0.1%) dipped into the red and Platinum (down 4.8%) fell steeply, while Brent Crude (up 2.3%) gained ground, ending in the green.
MONTHLY RETURNS:
