Investment Market Update
JANUARY 2024
What developments have unfolded in local and global markets throughout the month of January?
KEY NUMBERS
+8.4%
Dow Nikkei records its best January in 25 years
DDP Wins
Taiwan’s government remains for 3rd term
+6.8% yoy
SA mining production in November 2023
EXCHANGE RATES
In 2023 the Rand depreciated by -7% against the USD
In 2023 the Rand depreciated by -11.05% against the EUR
In 2023 the Rand depreciated by -12.51% against the GBP
GLOBAL MARKET
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The onset of the new year marked a shift from the exuberance witnessed at the end of 2023, with markets adjusting their outlook regarding potential central bank rate cuts in 2024.
January brought positive economic indicators, particularly in the US, alongside slightly higher-than-anticipated inflation figures. This shift, coupled with central banks’ tempered messaging regarding Q1 interest rate adjustments, had a modestly adverse effect on bonds, resulting in rising yields and declining prices.
While the equity market response was varied, developed markets generally experienced positivity, albeit against the backdrop of lingering weak sentiment in China impacting emerging markets.
Tensions in the Middle East prompted a slight uptick in energy prices. Global markets exhibited a mixed performance, with developed and emerging markets diverging. Developed market equities, notably Japanese equities, continued to outshine their emerging market counterparts.
Investor confidence in developed markets grew as inflation stabilized and major central banks signaled intentions to maintain steady interest rates. In the US, fourth-quarter GDP surpassed expectations, buoyed by robust consumer activity and a decline in mortgage rates to an eight-month low.
SMARTIE BOX IN RANDS:
LOCAL MARKETS
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South Africa began the year on a subdued note, marked by a decline in equities while fixed-income investments maintained stability.
Notably, the property sector emerged as the standout performer among local asset classes, sustaining its robust performance trend. Despite challenges posed by a weak broader local equity market and global real estate grappling with rising global bond yields, local property continued to shine, securing its position as the preferred asset class for local investors.
Local bonds offered marginally better returns than cash, with yields remaining relatively unchanged from the beginning of the month. Conversely, resource stocks, particularly PGMs, experienced declines, influenced by the surge in global transport costs and sluggish growth in China.
However, amidst these economic fluctuations, there was encouraging news for South African consumers, as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped to 5.1% year-on-year in December, accompanied by stable core inflation at 4.5%. The average inflation rate for South Africa in 2023 decreased to 6.0% from the 6.9% observed in 2022.
MOVEMENTS
- The JSE All Share Index had a poor start to the year (down 2.9%), the local bourse was brought down by all three major sectors.
- Financials (down 3.2%) and Industrials (down 1.2%) dropped sharply while, Resources (down 6.3%) plummeted.
- Small-caps (up 1.7%) gained value bucking the trend, while Mid-caps (down 2.8%) and Large-caps (down 3.5%) ended the month in the negative.
- The S&P SA REIT sector (up 5.2%) and the SA Listed Property sector (up 4.1%) continued to perform well, adding strong gains in January.
- SA Nominal Bonds (up 0.8%) and Inflation Linked Bonds (up 0.1%) inched their way into the green.
- Developed Market Equities outperformed their Emerging Market peers in US Dollar terms, with the MSCI World Index up 1.2% and the MSCI Emerging Market Index having lost 4.6%.
- The Rand too had a weak month, depreciating against the major currencies; relative to the US Dollar (Rand depreciated 1.7%), the Euro (Rand depreciated 0.0%) and the Pound Sterling (Rand depreciated 1.6%).
- The commodities sector had mixed results in December as Gold (down 0.7%) dipped into the red and Platinum (down 7.1%) fell dramatically, while Brent Crude (up 6.1%).
MONTHLY RETURNS:
