INVESTMENT MARKET UPDATE
JUNE 2026
What developments have unfolded in local and global markets throughout the month of JUNE?
477,000
New voters registered in South Africa
1.0%
Highest interest rate in Japan since 1995
1 Billion
Active users on ChatGPT, the highest AI platform usage
CHROME - JUNE COMMENTARY:
GLOBAL MARKETS
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🌐 When AI leadership meets geopolitical uncertainty: narrow market gains amid shifting sentiment
June presented a more balanced backdrop for global markets, as investors weighed continued AI-driven growth against geopolitical tensions and an uncertain interest rate outlook. While global equities ended the month higher, gains became increasingly concentrated among a small group of large technology companies.
US markets continued to benefit from strong demand for artificial intelligence, digital infrastructure and technology-related investment. AI-linked hardware and software companies remained key market drivers, supported by ongoing investor inflows into the sector. However, rising valuations and the significant capital required to sustain AI growth attracted greater investor scrutiny.
Market leadership narrowed noticeably during the month, with a handful of mega-cap technology stocks accounting for much of the market’s performance. While this helped support headline indices, it also raised concerns about increasing concentration within global equity markets.
Geopolitical developments remained a key focus, with renewed tensions involving Iran, Israel and the United States creating volatility in energy markets. Oil prices moved sharply higher at times before retreating later in the month as shipping routes stabilised and additional supply entered the market. The decline in oil prices helped ease some inflation concerns and supported investor sentiment.
Interest rate expectations also remained influential. Softer economic data supported the case for future rate cuts, but persistent inflation, particularly in the services sector, limited expectations for aggressive monetary easing. Bond markets remained relatively stable as investors balanced slowing growth risks against inflation concerns.
For investors, June highlighted both the opportunities and risks shaping global markets. While the long-term investment case for artificial intelligence remains compelling, elevated valuations, concentrated market leadership and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty continue to reinforce the importance of diversification and maintaining a long-term perspective.
Global Market Highlights (Month in USD):
- North America: -1.0%
- Europe ex UK: +1.3%
- UK: -0.8%
- Japan: -1.5%
- Emerging Markets: Mixed
- Asia -1.2%
- Europe +2.2%
- Latin America -2.2%
- Property: +0.6%
- Infrastructure: +1.3%
- Government Bonds: -0.8%
- Corporate Bonds: -0.5%
- Dollar Cash: +0.3%
Key Themes for Investors:
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AI remained the dominant market theme, although gains became increasingly concentrated in a small number of large technology companies.
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Geopolitical tensions drove energy market volatility, with conflict in the Middle East causing sharp oil price swings before easing towards month-end.
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Interest rate uncertainty persisted, as slowing economic data competed with sticky inflation in shaping expectations for future rate cuts.
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South African equities came under pressure, largely due to weaker commodity prices, while bonds and listed property delivered positive returns.
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The rand strengthened and Eskom’s improved performance continued, supporting confidence in South Africa’s longer-term outlook..
Rand / US Dollar:
- In June, the rand lost1.3% against the USD. This compares with the long-term monthly average:
• appreciation of 3.9%
• depreciation of -4.2%
Rand / Euro:
- In June the rand gained 4.0% against the EUR. This compares with the long-term monthly average:
• appreciation of 2.8%
• depreciation of -3.2%
Rand / British Pound:
- In June the rand gained 0.5% against the GBP. This compares with the long-term monthly average:
• appreciation of 3.1%
• depreciation of -3.1%
SMARTIE BOX IN RANDS:
LOCAL MARKETS
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South Africa: improving sentiment despite inflationary pressures
South African markets experienced a mixed month in June as improving investor sentiment and a stronger rand helped support local assets, although rising inflation and weaker commodity prices continued to create challenges.
Headline CPI accelerated to 4.5% year-on-year in May, up from 4.0% in April and its highest level since mid-2024. Higher fuel and transport costs, driven by earlier oil price spikes and the reinstatement of the fuel levy, were the primary contributors. While food inflation continued to ease, elevated inflation expectations reduced the likelihood of near-term interest rate relief from the South African Reserve Bank.
The JSE All Share Index ended the month lower, weighed down by weakness in the Resources sector as gold and commodity prices declined. Financials and Industrials delivered more resilient returns, while listed property continued its recent recovery. South African bonds also produced positive returns, providing valuable support to diversified portfolios.
The rand strengthened modestly during the month as global risk sentiment improved, supported by easing tensions in the Middle East, lower oil prices and a weaker US dollar. Firmer precious metal prices also provided support to South Africa’s export earnings and the currency.
One of the most encouraging developments remained the continued improvement in electricity supply. June marked more than a year without widespread load-shedding, with Eskom reporting higher energy availability and reduced diesel usage. While structural economic challenges remain, improved power stability continues to support business confidence and South Africa’s longer-term growth outlook.
Overall, June highlighted the balance between short-term economic pressures and improving structural fundamentals. While inflation remains elevated and commodity weakness weighed on equities, stronger energy security, a resilient rand and supportive bond market returns continue to provide reasons for cautious optimism.
Is Cheaper Always Better in retirement?
- The JSE All Share lost ground during the month, falling 3.7%.
- Financials (up 2.6%) and Industrials (up 2.2%) ended the month in positive territory, in sharp contrast to Resources (down 15.9%) which lagged significantly.
- Small-caps (up 2.3%) rose, while Mid-caps (down 2.1%) and Large-caps (down 4.5%) tumbled.
- SA Property extended its prior gains as the ALPI climbed 3.7% and S&P SA REIT Index advanced 4.5%.
- SA Nominal Bonds (up 1.5%) posted a strong month while Inflation-Linked Bonds (up 1.5%) matched this performance as inflation concerns continued to support this asset class.
- Emerging Market Equities retraced some of their previous month’s gains, with the MSCI Emerging Market Index declining (down 1.4%). In contrast, developed markets fared better, with the MSCI World Index (down 0.7%).
- The Rand delivered mixed performance against major currencies. The rand enjoyed modest gains against the Euro (Rand appreciated 0.8%) and the Pound (Rand appreciated 0.4%), while it weakened against the US Dollar (Rand depreciated 1.2%).
- Resources remained under pressure, extending the previous month’s losses, as Gold (down 11.8%), Platinum (down 19.4%), and Brent Crude (down 20.8%) all recorded substantial declines.
MONTHLY RETURNS:
