Investment Market Update
JUNE 2023
What has been happening in local & global markets in the month of June
KEY NUMBERS
+4.6%
SA bonds bounce back
5.9%
Global equity USD return for the month
6.3% YoY
SA inflation rate declined more than expected
LOCAL MARKET
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June was largely a good month for South African investors as the weakness of May unwound in both the currency and bond markets (the rand moved from R19.76/$ to R18.85/$).
Locally, SA bonds bounced back meaningfully from the previous months drop on the back of improved loadshedding conditions and an easing of sanction concerns over the previous months #Ladyrussiagate speculation. The announcement that Naspers and Prosus will be removing their cross-holding structure was very well received by the market. Resources dropped materially on a broad sell-off in commodity markets during the month. SA Headline CPI slowed for a second month to 6.3% YoY but still remains outside the SA Reserve Bank’s target range of 3%-6%.
In the same vein, the sour perception of South Africa’s political alignment seems to have sweetened slightly following the African peace mission to Russia and Ukraine, additionally President Ramaphosa has been absolved of responsibility in the Phala Phala saga by the acting Public Protector advocate Kholeka Gcaleka.
SMARTIE BOX IN RANDS:
GLOBAL MARKETS
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In a relatively light month of market-moving news headlines, capital markets saw strong returns across the board thanks to economic data releases which showed global economic activity slowing somewhat, although still at levels indicating positive growth.
Global equities ended positive for the month, boosted by a hand full of mega cap tech names which rallied on the back of the AI enthusiasm. Technology stocks in the US led the way for the best first half year performance on the Nasdaq Composite since the early 80’s (shortly after a recession triggered by tight monetary policy to combat high inflation that stemmed from an energy crisis).
Chinese stock indices ended slightly positive despite another month of contracting factory activity data. A common theme playing out in global markets is that inflation is surprising analysts to be lower than forecasted, central banks however remain cautious and have generally committed to keep rates higher for longer.
Lower than expected inflation in the US and euro area gave these markets a boost and reinforced optimism that the end of the rate hiking cycle is near. This, however, did lead to a further rise in short-end bond yields, riskier bond spreads narrowed, and their prices rose
A glimpse of easier monetary policy benefitted growth equities, particularly in the US. The UK was an outlier, however, as inflation surprised to the upside again. This spurred the Bank of England into a larger than expected rate hike of 0.5%.
MOVEMENTS
- The JSE All Share Index generated slight positive returns over the last month (up 1.4%).
- Resources (down 7.6%) struggled in May as Gold & Platinum stocks came under pressure while Industrials (up 3.7%) and Financials (up 11.7%) gained back some lost ground from the previous month.
- Small-caps (up 3.8%) and Mid-caps (up 4.2%) recovered somewhat while large-caps generated slight positive returns in June (up 1.1%).
- The S&P SA REIT sector (up 2.3%) and the SA Listed Property sector (up 0.9%) gained back some returns after large drawdowns in the previous month.
- SA Nominal Bonds (up 4.6%) bounced back from last month, while Inflation Linked Bonds (up 1.0%) benefited from the large inflation carry.
- Developed Market Equities comfortably outperformed their Emerging Market peers in US Dollar terms, with the MSCI World Index up 6.1% and the MSCI Emerging Market Index up 3.9%.
- The Rand appreciated against the major currencies; relative to the US Dollar (Rand appreciated 4.7%), the Euro (Rand appreciated 2.4%) and the Pound Sterling (Rand appreciated 2.2%).
- The commodities sector had another largely negative month, with Platinum (down 10.2%) and Gold (down 2.2%) posting negative returns, while Brent Crude (up 3.1%) saw some price appreciation.
MONTHLY RETURNS:
