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Tariffs, Tax Cuts, and Deregulation? Looking back at 2024 and what 2025 May Hold…

As we look back at 2024 we are reminded of the value of maintaining a long-term outlook on our investments and sticking to that long-term strategy. This last year we experienced continued tensions, volatility and noise in the marketplace with news and media outlets reporting back the stories of ongoing and wars, the anticipation of various elections, artificial intelligence with surging tech stocks as well as inflation and interest rates cuts being the major themes of the world.

It is impossible not to feel invested in such news and headlines, especially when it has direct implications for us living in South Africa and abroad. While 2024 produced a lot of volatility it also produced very promising returns for investors. A great expression of this is to look at the S&P 500 returns vs historical averages (since 1928) below:

 

The growth experienced in 2023 and now 2024 has been well above average and while the above graphs only look at the S&P500 in America it is important to remember a 2 key points:

  • The S&P makes up roughly 50% of the global equity market cap and therefore there is a high likelihood that most diversified investment funds have at least some exposures to this American market even if not directly.
  • We all “follow the fed” and while living in South Africa may seem like a world away from America, we are heavily impacted by the decisions of the Federal Reserve and the American economy. When America sneezes, the world catches a cold!

While such strong 2 years returns are great, these were the rewards for investors who remained patient and stuck to their long term-strategy. 2022 was one of the worst performance years on record and it is only with hindsight and experience that we can reflect on the difficulties of remaining invested during such periods of poor performance.

 

 

Tariffs, Tax Cuts, and Deregulation? What Will 2025 Hold…

 

While the future remains uncertain, signs of a global recovery are emerging, driven by U.S. economic strength and potential stabilization in China. The ongoing US-China rivalry warrants close attention, yet it also presents opportunities for investors, as superpower competition fuels capital investment. Despite geopolitical tensions, trade may still thrive in a multipolar world. Inflation is expected to decline, leading to interest rate cuts, while steady economic growth could result in steeper yield curves.

 

Markets as well as headlines are volatile, they cannot be predicted or controlled whatsoever. The only things that investors can control is their long-term perspective and their behavior. We are strong believers in managing risks through diversification and keeping an eye on the long-term plan, and while there may be a lot of noise in the market remain patient and let these basic principles be your guiding light. If in doubt, please don’t hesitate to give us a call.

 

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