INVESTMENT MARKET UPDATE
NOVEMBER 2025
What developments have unfolded in local and global markets throughout the month of NOVEMBER?
43 Days
The longest ever US government shutdown which ended this month
BB+
S&P upgraded SA’s credit rating and maintained its positive outlook
-$18,000
Bitcoin dropped in November, its biggest fall since 2021
ADVANTAGE - NOVEMBER COMMENTARY:
GLOBAL MARKETS
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🌐 Global Markets: From Momentum to Moderation
Global Market Highlights (Month in USD):
- MSCI World Index: +0.3%
- MSCI Emerging Markets: +8.3% YTD
- S&P 500: +0.2%
- Dow Jones: +0.3%
- NASDAQ: -1.5%
- FTSE 100 (UK): Flat
- Shanghai Composite (China): -1.67%
- Hang Seng (Hong Kong): -0.2%
- Nikkei 225 (Japan): -4%
- Gold: +5.9% (month), +14.8% YTD
- Brent Crude: $63.20 per barrel (declined)
Key Themes for Investors:
- Inflation is easing, but services inflation remains sticky, so central banks are signaling a slower pace of rate cuts.
- Global growth is steady but slowing, with the US, Europe, and China all showing resilience.
- Geopolitical risks and trade disputes continue to drive market volatility and influence commodities and currencies.
- US equities paused after a strong run, with investors rotating into defensive sectors.
- South Africa stands out for its fiscal discipline, new inflation target, and rate cut, boosting bonds and the rand.
- Gold and government bonds outperformed as investors sought safe havens.
- Foreign inflows favored SA bonds, while equities saw outflows, highlighting the appeal of fixed income.
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The rand strengthened and volatility dropped, reflecting improved macro conditions.
Rand / US Dollar:
- In November, the Rand gained 1.2% against the USD, from a loss of 0.4% in Oct.
- This compares with the long-term monthly average appreciation of 3.9% and depreciation of -4.2%
Rand / Euro:
- In November, the Rand gained 0.2% against the EUR, from a gain of 1.2% in Oct
- This compares with the long-term monthly average appreciation of 2.8% and depreciation of -3.2%
Rand / British Pound:
- In November, the Rand gained 0.4% against the GBP, from a gain of 2.0% in Oct
- This compares with the long-term monthly average appreciation of 3.1% and depreciation of -3.1%
SMARTIE BOX IN RANDS:
LOCAL MARKETS
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South African Markets: Fiscal Credibility and Gold Shine Bright
November was another standout month for South African assets, with both equities and bonds delivering robust returns in USD terms. The market was buoyed by a conservative Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS), which reassured investors with its prudent fiscal stance and a reduction in projected government bond issuance. This was swiftly followed by S&P’s upgrade of South Africa’s sovereign outlook to ‘positive’, and a 25 basis point repo rate cut by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB), taking it to 6.75%.
The SARB also announced a major shift in monetary policy, formally adopting a 3% inflation target (±1%), replacing the previous 3–6% range. This move is expected to lower inflation expectations, ease pricing pressures, and create space for lower borrowing costs over time. The Rand’s move below R17/$ for the first time since 2023 and implied volatility at its lowest since 2000 reflect improving macro conditions and declining risk premia.
South African government bonds rallied strongly, with 10-year bonds up 4% in USD terms for the month and 29% year-to-date, making them one of the best-performing global asset classes. Foreign investors responded with record net inflows into government bonds, while equities saw net outflows, highlighting the relative attractiveness of fixed income.
On the equity front, the gold sector was the clear winner in November. AngloGold Ashanti surged by 23.8%, Gold Fields gained 6.8%, and Sibanye Stillwater advanced 19.4%, all benefiting from ongoing strength in precious metal prices and positive earnings momentum. Conversely, the technology sector weighed on the broader market, with Naspers and Prosus both declining sharply. MTN also struggled after a strong run earlier in the year.
Inflation remained well contained, with October CPI at 3.6% year-on-year. Domestic economic activity showed resilience in areas such as vehicle sales and credit growth, while retail sales faced tougher year-on-year comparisons. The sharper-than-expected drop in unemployment added to optimism around domestic recovery.
2025 Mind of the manager survey results
- The JSE All Share posted another strong month, ending the month up 1.7%.
- Resources led the way in November (up 9.6%), as Financials inched higher (up 1.8%), and Industrials detracted sharply (down 4.8%).
- Small-caps (up 4.7%) boasted strong gains for the month, as did Mid-caps (up 4.8%) which both outperformed Large-caps (up 1.4%).
- SA Property markets posted another very strong month of returns, on the back of lower bond yields. The ALPI added 7.7%, while the S&P SA REIT index reported a 9.2% gain.
- SA Nominal Bonds (up 3.4%) gained on the back of the MTBPS, while Inflation-Linked Bonds also bounced (up 4.0%).
- Developed Market Equities were largely flat, as the MSCI World Index gained (up 0.3% in USD) but still managed to outperform its emerging market peers, as the MSCI Emerging Market Index contracted (down 2.4% in USD).
- The Rand broadly strengthened in November. Relative to the US Dollar (Rand appreciated 1.2%), the Euro (Rand appreciated 0.6%) and the Pound Sterling (Rand appreciated 0.3%).
- Platinum bounced (up 6.9%) and Gold (up 5.9%) respectively and Brent Crude (down 2.9%).
MONTHLY RETURNS:
