Investment Market Update
SEPTEMBER 2023
What has been happening in local & global markets in the month of September
KEY NUMBERS
4.6%
US 10-year treasury yield at a 15-year high
4.3%
Eurozone inflation fell to a two-year low
0.0%
The MPC kept rates unchanged at 6.5%
LOCAL MARKET
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Global volatility and weakness reverberated throughout South African markets, resulting in negative returns for local investors across all asset classes except for local cash.
South African and emerging equity markets outperformed their developed market peers in September despite the risk-off environment. The MPC echoed the sentiment of the Fed and decided to keep rates on hold in September as well as signal the possibility of one more rate hike come year end. SA inflation rose slightly higher to 4.8% in August in most part due to higher oil prices.
The past month proved to be a formidable challenge for investors across various fronts. The adverse performance in domestic and global equity, bonds, and property markets underscores the escalating uncertainty and economic headwinds confronting investors. Heightened inflation concerns and extended higher interest rates in the United States have created a less favorable environment for a small emerging economy like South Africa.
SMARTIE BOX IN RANDS:
GLOBAL MARKETS
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September was the worst month for global equity markets so far in 2023, as the market ended the month down 3.8% in USD terms.
The Fed kept the federal funds rate at the current 22 year high of 5.25%-5.5% and signalled the possibility of one more hike by the end of the year, markets viewed this hawkishness negatively as this is indicative of rates being higher for longer. During the month, Chinese PMI increased to over the 50 threshold which differentiates between contraction and expansion of economic activity, the data is an encouraging sign of economic stabilisation after a disappointing recovery from the re-opening post Covid.
September saw a pause in developed market central bank rate hikes, but also higher longer-term bond yields as investors priced in longer delays before rate cuts began. Bond prices consequently fell over the month, particularly in the US. The ‘higher interest rates for longer’ narrative also hit equities, with most regional markets falling in local currency terms. Oil prices continued to rise as Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed to extend their production cuts to the end of 2023. Greater uncertainty and higher US yields helped the US dollar to appreciate further against most other currencies.
MOVEMENTS
- The JSE All Share Index declined over the month (down 2.5%).
- Resources (up 1.2%) was the best performing sector while Industrials (down 4.1%) and Financials (down 3.7%) fell sharply.
- Small-caps (down 2.0%), Mid-caps (down 1.1%) and Large-caps (down 3.1%) all struggled.
- The S&P SA REIT sector (down 3.3%) and the SA Listed Property sector (down 4.1%) continue to lose ground.
- SA Nominal Bonds (down 2.4%) and Inflation Linked Bonds (down 1.0%) sold off as yields climbed higher.
- Developed Market Equities underperformed their Emerging Market peers in US Dollar terms, with the MSCI World Index down 4.3% and the MSCI Emerging Market Index having dropped 2.6%.
- The Rand appreciated against the major currencies; relative to the US Dollar (Rand appreciated 0.5%), the Euro (Rand appreciated 2.9%) and the Pound Sterling (Rand appreciated 4.2%).
- The commodities sector had mixed results in September, as Platinum (down 6.6%) gained and Gold (down 4.6%) dropped, while Brent Crude (up 9.7%) continued its trajectory sharply higher.
MONTHLY RETURNS:
